Finding value in Bordeaux 2016
Almost two years ago, when producing his harvest report on the 2016 Bordeaux vintage, Gavin Quinney predicted: “At the top end, the wines will not be cheap when prices emerge later on but there’ll be scores of others that offer terrific bang for your buck”.
Since then, a number of critics have reviewed the 2016 vintage at En Primeur and very recently in-bottle and are effusive in their praise. Today’s blog post looks at the vintage in light of these scores and its position in the broader Bordeaux landscape.
While some 2016s have risen in value, such as the second wines of the First Growths – Carruades Lafite is up by 58%, for instance, and Petit Mouton by 33% – the vintage has moved little since release.
Release prices for the vintage were generally considered high. In our concluding report on 2016 En Primeur we noted that price increases for UK buyers were 31% higher than the year before, partly due to pound devaluation.
At present, the 2016 stands at the same level as the 2015 in terms of average Market Price, but there is a difference in scores – a point higher for the 2016.
As the chart below shows, Liv-ex’s fair value methodology places the 2016 below the trend line. Not only is it undervalued, but it lies the furthest below compared to the last ten vintages. This suggests that it offers buyers more value for their money than other vintages, especially against the similarly-scored 2009 and 2010.