Bordeaux 2016: Cheval Blanc, Haut Brion and Cos d'Estournel
Last week, The Wine Advocate published its Bordeaux 2016 in-bottle report by Lisa Perotti-Brown MW. You can find our summary of the report which includes the price performance of the top-scoring wines, here.
Today’s post takes a look at three of Perotti-Brown MW’s 100-point wines: Cheval Blanc, Haut Brion and Cos d’Estournel. Using our ‘fair value’ methodology, we consider what her scores mean for each wine.
Back in April 2017, when writing for The Wine Advocate, Neal Martin awarded the 2016 a barrel range of 97-99 points. When using Martin’s score in our fair value model, the wine would sit just above the trend line, indicating that it was trading at a premium to its ‘fair value’.
However, following Perotti-Brown’s upgrade, the wine now falls below the line, as the chart below shows. It may, therefore, represent an exciting opportunity for followers of the critic. The equally-scored 2015 also looks attractive.
In her tasting note, Perrotti-Brown described the 2016 as being “very different” from the 2015, but “equally extraordinary”.
Like Cheval Blanc, Haut Brion 2016 also received a score upgrade last week. It was previously awarded a barrel range of 97-99 by Martin but received a perfect 100 points from Perotti-Brown on Friday.
As a result of the upgrade, Haut Brion 2016 has also moved below the line implied by our fair value methodology, making it appear an attractive option for buyers. At £4,640 per 12×75, it is available at a discount to the equally-scored 2015, 2010, 2009 and 2005 vintages.
The scores in the chart below are all from Perotti-Brown, whose vertical report on Cos d’Estournel was also published last month. (Previous charts have displayed scores from a mix of current and previous WA reviewers.)
It reveals the 2016 as the most ‘undervalued’ at around 22% below the price implied by our ‘fair value’ methodology, and 27% below the price of the 2009.
Liv-ex’s ‘fair value’ methodology is a model that maps the relationship between wine prices and critic scores. The methodology can be used to identify potential pricing anomalies in the secondary market. For example, vintages that lie above the trend line are assumed to be trading at a premium to ‘fair value’, while those below it, at a discount. For more information on Liv-ex’s ‘fair value’ methodology, please click here.